WASHINGTON — Steel and aluminum tariffs will hurt many manufacturers. But the value of imports covered by the duties is only $10.8 billion, a pinprick for a $19.5 trillion economy.
The real danger, economists and business groups say, is the cumulative effect of several pending tariffs and the risk that they will instigate a full-blown trade war or trigger the demise of NAFTA. Chief among them is President Donald Trump's threat to slap a 25 percent tariff on auto imports and car parts on national security grounds.
There is little basis for such a threat. The domestic auto sector is booming and didn't seek relief from imports.
But it can't be dismissed as political theater or a way to pressure trading partners for concessions.
Until now, the Trump administration's aggressive proposals and bullying to correct trade imbalances were followed by horse-trading or backtracking to more modest outcomes, reflecting discord among White House factions feuding for control over trade issues.
There's little of that discord left. Trade and foreign-policy hawks such as Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and National Security Adviser John Bolton have gained the upper hand. The threatened steel and aluminum tariffs on major allies are now a reality, the U.S. just reinstated sanctions on companies that do business with Iran, a potential exit from NAFTA seems more likely and new tariffs on Chinese imports are soon expected.
The disarray on so many trade fronts makes it difficult for businesses to invest, despite the windfall from corporate tax cuts and deregulation.
"Our members need regulatory and market certainty to prosper," and whipsaw policies are "going to have an impact on job growth and investment," said Ann Wilson, senior vice president of government relations at the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association.
When tariffs or quotas, for example, are imposed without much lead time, buyers and sellers with shipments on the water try to push the cost onto the other party, although responsibility is often sorted out amicably, said Nicole Bivens Collinson, a former U.S. trade negotiator who now heads international trade and government relations at law firm Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg.
Erosion of trust
